Keno Lottery Statistical Analysis
Project Overview
This project examined whether certain ways of playing Keno offered better expected outcomes than others and sought to correct the incorrect probabilities stated by the majority of US states' lotteries. I used probability, expected value, and statistical modeling to compare different number selections and payout structures.
What I Did
I calculated the probability of matching different numbers based on how many selections were made and compared this against the available payouts.
From this, I calculated the expected value of different Keno options to determine which choices returned the most value over time. While no option removed the advantage held by the lottery, some ways of playing were mathematically better than others.
I also compared the published odds from different state lotteries and helped explain where the information was inaccurate or misleading.
What I Learned
This project gave me experience taking a complicated statistical problem and explaining it to a general audience.
The maths itself was important, but the bigger challenge was presenting probability and expected value in a way that made sense without oversimplifying the results. It also showed me how easily statistics can be misunderstood when the wording or presentation is unclear.
Publications
The research contributed to two articles published in Significance, the statistics magazine of the Royal Statistical Society and the American Statistical Association:
In a State to Win?
This article compares different ways of playing Keno using probability and expected value. It explains why some selections offer better returns than others, even though the lottery still maintains an overall advantage.
Published in Significance, Volume 23, Issue 2, March 2026.
How we Helped Change the State Lottery Playslip
My first-author article explains how our statistical analysis identified problems with a state lottery playslip and contributed to changes in how the odds were presented.
Published in Significance, Volume 21, Issue 5, November 2024.
Fixing the Lottery — Stats + Stories
I appeared on the Stats + Stories podcast to discuss the research, the mathematics behind Keno, and how to explain more clearly to the public why lottery odds can be misleading.